Remember Why!

Weather and Washington will continue to rule the grain world. It is refreshing to see the USDA decouple payments from specific grains/oilseeds yet, the final details as per the three tranches of payments is still to come and we can continue being surprised. It appears that there are more questions than answers and the USDA appears to be adapting and evolving. But, the program is supportive to the farm community. All is well. Stay calm!

It is a day to day determination as to what gets planted in the barren acres. Prevent Plant or not? That is the question. More will be known next week. Regardless, Mother Nature is the key factor in price action and if and when it stops raining long enough to get into the field we'll have an interesting Summer and Fall as the stage is set for yield loss if we are not blessed with a perfect growing season from June through the first half of October.

Wheat is starting to see harvest activity and delays caused by moisture are very, very bad things. Heaven help us if we start hearing about sprout damage but, that's a couple of weeks away in those areas which have turned. Most of the gut of the soft red production area is still not getting harmed from too much rain unless it's in the low areas and under water. Mid June to mid July is the gut slot for winter wheat harvest and we will continue to be concerned with quality which may have a very large influence on spread direction. We are at prices where wheat will compete with corn in the feed channels. No one likes to store junky wheat as it tends to get worse in the bin. Also, the lowered corn acreage in the eastern Heartland and the probability of a delay in harvest in the last half of September may spark interest in using the vomitoxin stocks in the Toledo/Maumee switching district. Mother Nature is opening up a lot of possibilities thus Summer.

To all those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country; Thank you! We remember you!

The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.

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Steve Bruce


Walsh Trading
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