AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures pulled back from 8 and 9 cent losses earlier in the session to close Monday a penny to 2 3/4 cents lower in most contracts. Cooler temperatures and localized rain are in the forecast this week. The Crop Progress report this afternoon showed 67% of the crop was silking as of July 23, vs. the average of 69%. This week’s report showed 8% of the corn crop was in the dough stage, compared to the average of 13%. Conditions for last week were reported at 62% good/excellent, down 2% from the previous week. The Brugler500 index was at 359, 4 points lower than last year. The USDA reported a private export sale of 135,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations for the 17/18 marketing year through their daily reporting system. This morning’s export inspections report showed 935,262 MT of exports for the week of July 20, 16.71% lower than the previous week and 29.12% behind last year. China reported June corn imports of 383,092 MT, doubling YTD imports, but still 74.7% behind 2016.

Sep 17 Corn closed at $3.77 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.90 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 Corn closed at $4.02, down 2 1/2 cents

May 18 Corn closed at $4.07, down 2 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures posted 10 to 12 1/4 cent losses in most contracts on Monday. Front month soy meal was down $3.80/ton, with Aug 17 soy oil 19 points lower. As of Sunday, 69% of the soybean crop was reported as blooming, with 29% setting pods, both 2% above their respective averages. Soybean conditions were lowered 4% to 57% g/e, with the Brugler500 at 349 vs. 357 last week. There were 596,920 MT of soybeans inspected for export during the week of July 20, nearly twice as much as the previous week but 17.27% lower than last year. YTD, the US has shipped 285 mbu more than in 2016. Soybean imports for China totaled 7.687 MMT for the month of June, down 6.7% from June 2016. Safras Mercado is estimating 17/18 Brazilian soybean plantings at 87.70 million acres, up 5.2% from 16/17, with production projected at 113.2 MMT on lower yields.

Aug 17 Soybeans closed at $9.97 1/2, down 11 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans closed at $10.02 1/2, down 11 3/4 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans closed at $10.10, down 12 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $10.22 1/4, down 11 1/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybean Meal closed at $325.90, down $3.80,

Aug 17 Soybean Oil closed at $33.61, down $0.19

Wheat

Wheat futures closed the day with most KC and CBT contracts 4 to 10 1/2 cents lower, as MPLS was down 11 to 15 1/4 cents in most contracts. The 2017 US winter wheat harvest is 84% completed, ahead of last year’s 82% and the average of 80%. The Spring wheat crop is 96% headed, ahead of the average of 94%, as the 2017 spring wheat tour starts tomorrow. Spring wheat condition ratings dropped another 1% to 33% g/e as expected. The Brugler500 index is now at 277, down 1 point from last week. Earlier this morning, the USDA announced 451,665 MT of wheat was inspected for export during the week of July 20, 23.88% lower than last week and 23.32% behind the same week in 2016. The Russian Ag Ministry estimates that 21.9 MMT of wheat has been harvested through Friday, with total grain harvest at 26.7 MMT, behind last year’s 32.7 MMT. Egypt’s GASC is seeking wheat for Sep 1-10 delivery, with the tender to close tomorrow.

Sep 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.88 3/4, down 10 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.87 1/2, down 8 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.50 1/2, down 15 1/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures were $1.35 to $2.55 lower with Oct and Dec limit down, after Friday’s bearish COF and Cattle inventory reports. Feeder cattle futures finished with Aug down the limit and back months $3.375 to $4.475 lower. The CME feeder cattle index was up $2.85 on July 21 to $151.03. Wholesale beef prices were higher in the afternoon report, with choice boxes up 55 cents at $207.46 and select $3.09 higher at $197.89. The Ch/Se spread has narrowed to $9.57. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was 112,000 head, 2,000 larger that last week and the same week last year. Some of the large placements numbers from Friday’s COF report could be attributed to the drought in the North. SD placements were up 67% yr/yr, with placements of all cattle under 800 lbs 26.55% larger than in June 2016. Monday’s Cold Storage report showed June 30 beef stocks 10.3% lower than in 2016 but 1.236% larger than May at 416.68 million pounds.

Aug 17 Cattle closed at $113.875, down $2.550,

Oct 17 Cattle closed at $114.400, down $3.000,

Dec 17 Cattle closed at $115.175, down $3.000,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.450, down $4.500

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.675, down $4.475

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.600, down $4.350

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures ended the day mostly 20 to 80 cents in the red. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/20 was 33 cents lower than the previous day at $91.67. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 57 cents lower in the Monday afternoon report, with a weighted average of $102.21. The national base hog carcass price was 93 cents lower with a weighted average of $82.39.FI hog slaughter was estimated at 413,000 head, 4,000 head fewer than the previous week and down 15,000 than the same week in 2016. Total pork frozen stocks as of June 30 were at 562.97 million pounds, down 4.01% from 2016 and 4.97% from May. Belly stocks continue to post record monthly lows, as they were at 22.291 million pounds. That is 64.57% lower yr/yr and down 29.43% from May.

Aug 17 Hogs closed at $80.375, down $0.725,

Oct 17 Hogs closed at $66.450, down $0.775

Dec 17 Hogs closed at $61.175, down $0.800

Cotton

Cotton futures were mostly 3 to 20 points lower on Monday. The US cotton crop is 77% squared, vs. the average of 84%, with 36% setting bolls compared to the average of 41%. Condition ratings dropped 5% to 55% g/e, with a Brugler500 index of 352, down 11 points from last week. The AWP through Thursday is 64.87 cents/lb, down 60 points from the previous week. The Cotlook A index for July 21 was 85 points higher at 85.05 cents/lb. On Monday, China sold 17,000 MT of the total 29,800 MT offered at an auction of state reserves. In June, they imported 72,412 MT of cotton, down slightly from last year, with 28,714 MT coming from the US.

Oct 17 Cotton closed at 69.000, down 14 points,

Dec 17 Cotton closed at 68.290, down 13 points

May 18 Cotton closed at 68.550, down 7 points


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